Thursday, October 12, 2006

What a Difference a Day Makes.

Today everything in our world seems ok again. Yesterday saw a negative reaction to Alcoa’s earnings, then there was the OPEC production cuts, the Fed, and finally to top it off, the plane crash in New York. These factors all contributed to the negative numbers seen on the markets yesterday. Ah, but today is a different day. What’s new today you ask?

Well for one, oil is down almost a dollar to its lowest level in a year. So much for those OPEC cuts. The real test of oil will come this morning when the inventory numbers are released at 10:30am ET. Watch for oil to head lower should inventories increase. Saudi Arabia also said that they would likely not make any production cuts until at least the end of November.

It also looks like the markets are looking past Alcoa’s earnings as Pepsi, Costco and Harley Davidson all reported stronger than expected earnings. McDonald’s also said third quarter sales were higher than expected and raised it’s earnings forecast to 68 cents per share from 63 cents per share. Clearly Wall Street will see that as good news and continue the rally as strong earnings begin to flow. The Dow, Nasdaq and S&P futures are all up this morning suggesting stocks will start positive. All we need is good news from the oil inventory report to ensure the days finished positive.

Looking at my two plays, SCUR is still hovering below $7.00. Like most stocks yesterday, it was down a few cents to $6.87. I’m looking for it to cross $7.00 today and then will base our decision to sell on its direction after it crosses $7.00. If it can’t hold and heads back down then it will be time to take our profit and move on putting our money to better use. I’m looking at Encore Wire to put my proceeds from SCUR. WIRE was down 86 cents yesterday to close at $33.36. I’d like to pick this stock up in the $32’s but I don’t know if that will happen.

CLRK surprised us yesterday with a 25 cent gain to close at $20.99. While a close over $21.00 would have been great, I’ll gladly take a 25 cent gain on a day where a lot of stocks were in the red. Today I’m looking for CLRK to cross $21.00 and hold there.

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