Trust Your Gut

Nice track record, huh? I say the market will go up and it tanks. I say the market will go down and it rallies. Well yesterday I said market wouldn’t do much and it rallies to a new record. Perhaps I should give up trying to predict the market movement on any given day. But I would say that this teaches me about how difficult it is to predict what the market will do on any given day.

But I still say that no matter how much people try to make it a scientific discipline, the stock market is still more about social science than anything. People can take all the empirical measurements and predictions they like but in the end it’s all about the way people feel and think. All your charts and figures can be telling you a stock is going to soar and in the end if people don’t like the stock for ,what ever reason, they won’t buy it and the price won’t go up. I think the best tool a trader can have is his gut feeling. If his gut feeling is telling him to get out of a stock then he better do it, because more often than not the gut feeling trumps the empirical evidence. Always go with your gut feeling when trading stocks. If the numbers say the stock you’re looking at should go up but you get a feeling of doubt then it’s best to stay away and look for somewhere else t o put your hard earned money.