Sell on News

CLRK has had nothing but good news recently. Yesterday was no exception. Forbes placed it on their 25 fastest growing companies list for the second year in a row. Initially up the stock then tanked by three dollars into the $17 range and subsequently managed to recover some ground to finish down only $1.46. We’ll jut have to wait and see what happens with its earnings next week.

The January jobs report came out this morning and was weaker than expected. The report showed that 111,000 jobs were added to the US economy versus a forecast of 150,000. This caused both futures and bond prices to rise. Now, normally a weaker jobs report would be a bad thing. So why is Wall Street so happy? Well since the economy is strong, the Feds biggest concern has been inflation. If the Fed thinks there is inflation then they will be looking to raise rates. However if the economy shows signs of slowing or weakening, the inflation fears subside and the Fed must now look to an appropriate time to start gradually lowering rates to try for Greenspan’s famous soft landing. So today, the market looks poised to charge ahead on a weaker jobs report.

All Signs Look Up

The day after the Fed held rates steady the market look like they could be in for a good day. Google posted earning three times greater than a year ago beating forecasts. Dell announced that Michael Dell would be back in the CEO post. Dell said his company needed to execute better. Starbucks and Royal Dutch Shell both posted improved earnings.

Oil is hovering around the $58 per barrel range after recent comments from OPEC.

In economic news, incomes rose 0.5 percent in December and spending by individuals rose 0.7 percent, both in line with economist’s forecasts.

Today's the Day

U.S. GDP numbers came out this morning and showed that growth picked up to 3.5% annually from 2% annually in the previous quarter. That helped picked the futures up off their lows. Oil prices jumped yesterday as the Saudi’s caught everyone off guard by saying they that they would further reduce production after saying the day before that they were fine with prices and production levels.

Time Warner, Flextronics, and Alcan all met or exceeded forecasts while Allstate posted weaker earnings. But the major news today is the Fed’s decision on interest rates. It looks like nothing much will happen until the rate is released at 2:15pm. As I said yesterday, the Fed is widely expected to leave rates unchanged and the market will be focusing on the accompanying statement for any clues as to where the fed thinks rates will be going in the future.

Here’s hoping for Good News.

Waiting for the Fed

Some good news for the markets as both 3M and Proctor and Gamble posted good earnings. Will this be enough to drive the markets higher? I think today will be a somewhat flat day as everyone waits to see what the Fed is going to do with interest rates tomorrow. The current thinking is that the Fed will hold the line on rates.

The Fed has, in the past, talked of the economy being stronger than they thought so there is a slight danger that they may do something stupid an raise. Actually the chance is probably a little larger because you can always count on senile old men to do something stupid, especially on the highways. But I think that they should lower by a ¼ point as there have already been a number of companies forecasting weaker growth for the next few quarters. Too bad that the Fed would rather push the US into a recession rather than have a vibrant economy with 4 or 5% inflation. For some strange reason the Fed would rather see people unemployed and no inflation. I don’t understand why since they make so much money that 4 or 5% inflation really wouldn’t be a problem for them.

Oh well, the bottom line on today is to expect a flat day as the market waits for the Fed rate announcement tomorrow at 2:15pm.

Hold On. It's Gonna be an Interesting Week

This week promises to be an interesting week with a number of major earnings and economic reports due out and another Fed meeting. There were also a number of deals announced this morning that will hopefully get the markets moving in an upward direction. Among them:

Merrill Lynch is buying First Republic Bank for $1.8 Billion.

Abitibi Consolidated is combining with Bowater in a merger of equals.

And US Airways is willing to increase its takeover offer for Delta Airlines by $1 billion.

Looks like the tone has been set for an interesting week. I’ll keep you posted throughout the week.

Anyone's Guess

It seems as though earnings reports are alternating between beating, hitting and missing forecasts. Yesterday Microsoft beat forecast (although those were lower than last year) and guided higher. Also beating forecasts was Dow component Honeywell. The other Dow component that reported results yesterday was Caterpillar and they missed their forecasts. Finally Amgen also missed its forecast yesterday. So far this earnings season 69% of companies reporting beat forecasts while 15% matched forecasts. Only 16% of companies missed their forecasts but you would never know it by the way the market has performed over the last few days.

Oil seems to be creeping back up to the $55/barrel range which isn’t very good. I know all the gas stations have been only to happy to raise their prices over the last week. Well here’s hoping for some milder weather and lower prices. My wallet is enjoying the break and looking for more.

What’s going on today in the markets is anyone’s guess. Where they start may not be where they finish. All I can say is that today will certainly be interesting.

The Good, the Bad and the Ford

More good news from the tech sector as Ebay, Qualcomm and Nokia all posted better than forecast earnings. Ebay even raised their outlook for the next quarter and the full year. They also announced the buyback of $1- billion in stock. Chip maker Qualcomm also posted better than expected earnings and raised their guidance. Expect Nasdaq to do well today.

The blue chippers may not fair as well on the NYSE as Ford reported a record loss of $12.7 Billion, that’s right BILLION loss for the quarter. Boy if I lost even half that my bank would have me shot. Ford got stuck with a high reliance on trucks when high gas prices hit and sent consumers running to buy smaller cars. Although the margins are high on trucks, you can’t realize the profits unless you sell the trucks. It will be interesting to see what Wall Street thinks of all this.

Yahoo for Yahoo!

Yahoo and Sun Microsystems both advanced in the after hours market yesterday and helped push up Nasdaq futures this morning. Looks like we’re in for a positive open on Nasdaq. Yahoo posted numbers that beat Wall Street’s expectations. The stock initially dropped but in their conference call Yahoo reassured Wall Street that their new search tool will boost revenue at the end of the year. Perhaps this is the year where Yahoo steps out from under Google’s shadow.

During Bush’s state of the union address yesterday he called on Americans to reduce their gas consumption by 20% over the next ten years. Could this be the reason that oil is lower this morning by 56 cents? I think not. But it will be interesting to watch the inventory report due out at 10:30 am Eastern time this morning.

Overall it looks to be a positive day today and I hope to see a continuation of the modest gains in the stocks I’m holding today (CLRK and WIRE).

Another Dull Day?

It doesn’t look good for technology this morning with Alcatel-Lucent forecasting a drop in their fourth quarter earnings. Texas Instruments posted earnings that beat forecasts but also guided lower for the next quarter.

Oil was also higher crossing $53 to trade at $53.35, largely based on the recent forecast for colder weather in the northeast and the new OPEC quotas taking effect. I don’t expect the price of crude to remain above $50 because demand has fallen and supply has risen. There are also quite a few non OPEC countries supplying oil that are not subject to the OPEC quotas and they show no signs of reducing production.

GAP’s CEO Paul Pressler resigned after he had been unable to halt the slide in sales. GAP’s chairman will take over as CEO until a suitable replacement can be found.

DuPont and United Technologies both reported earnings that beat the street. At this point we can expect the broader market to be flat to slightly higher.

We need a couple of major companies to post some stellar earnings to kick start the rally that we saw before Christmas. Maybe people are waiting until after G.W.’s State of the Union address to decide whether they’re buying or not. God I feel sorry for those poor people down south having to put up with another two more years of Bush. What an embarrassment and pathetic president he turned out to be. But then again the Americans did elect him.

An Apple a Day?

Yesterday Apple released its earnings. It announced its first ever $1-Billion profit quarter. Profits were $1.14 per share beating the 78 cents that analysts were looking for and the 65 cents it earned in the year before. Income was up 77% from the same period a year earlier. All this is fabulous news for Apple so the stock should be vaulting ahead this morning, right?

Wrong! Apple was down 1.2% in overnight trading. Why is that you ask? Well the stock market is quite a fickle place to be. You can post the most stellar quarter setting records all around yet still the market sees something it doesn’t like. In Apple’s case it looks like future guidance for the next quarter and lower ipod growth rates. People buy stocks based on the company’s potential for future earnings so some short sighted analysts look at things like the next quarter and lower ipod growth rates and think that Apple will earn less money in the future. But each time this happens Jobs proves everyone wrong. He will do it again with the iphone and itv. For with Jobs at the helm it’s always a good time to buy Apple.

Back in the Saddle Again

Well I’m back after a much needed holiday. I managed to blow my Christmas budget out of the water again this year so I need a nice Spring rally to help defer the cost of Christmas. Well looks like the holidays weren’t very good for the stocks that I’m holding. CLRK is currently sitting at $19.35 while WIRE is a disappointing $21.59. CLRK is our long term investment so we can expect to ride out some ups and downs but WIRE needs to get moving or we should look at selling it and putting our profit to better use. WIRE is set t begin a share buy back program and to send out some dividends.

In the business news, the mild weather that we’ve been having in the north east has reduced the demand for heating oil and driven inventories up. As inventories go up the price of oil drops. Looks like the TD’s call of a $55/barrel oil price was right on the money. OPEC is starting to get worried but I don’t think that they can do enough to stop the slide of oil to the hight 30’s low 40’s. As we’ve seen before as oil drops the markets rise and my wallet is happier on both fronts.

Come on Santa

Yesterday Nike’s earnings beat Wall Street’s expectations. This morning the third quarter revised GDP number is due out at 8:30am. Also this morning the Conference Board will release its report on leading indicators at 10:30. If these numbers come in at good levels, we can see a continuation of the Santa Claus rally that was underway for December. The Dow was well into record territory early yesterday before the record run was cut short yesterday. Good numbers can change all that and spur on further records well into the New Year.

Another Reason to Rally

CNN Money.com’s headline this morning is “A Merry Merger Monday.” It looks like Express Scripts, Harrods, and Realogy will all be merged or sold. Even overseas markets are getting into it as Citigroup won regulatory approval for it’s majority purchase of China’s Guangdong Development bank. Norway’s Norsk Hydro and Statoil have agreed to merge their oil and gas operations. Orthopedics maker Biomet appears to be the target of a couple of firms. And Finally Canada’s BCE has announced that it will sell Telesat. All this merger activity has led to a jump in the futures and a likelihood of a continuation of this rally further into record territory.

I’m hoping all the merger talk and activity gives boost to my stocks, especially WIRE which seems down and out at the moment. CLRK signed another licensing deal. This one with Chinese manufacturer Neo-Neon that should help fuel another rise. We need something that will take the stock above the $25.00 range.

Good News Friday

Well the stock market looks poised to take off into record territory as this mornings CPI report came in showing inflation unchanged. Nasdaq futures are currently up over 17 points, suggesting a large gap at the open should things remain unchanged. Economists had forecast a 0.2% rise in the inflation rate so this is truly good news. This news should offset the oil production cuts announced by OPEC yesterday and hopefully give a much needed boost to WIRE.

'Tis the Season

OPEC is at it again. They’re meeting in Nigeria to discuss more production cuts. It doesn’t seem to me that long ago when OPEC was talking about the ideal price of oil range as being between $28 and $35 per barrel. What happened you ask? When the price of oil rose above $60 and the global economy didn’t fall apart, OPEC realized that it could make a lot more money by keeping oil above $60. So now we are facing the possibility of production cuts and higher oil prices, which the market most certainly won’t like.

On the plus side, Wall Street is having a great year. The pick up in market activity along with all the mergers and acquisitions, has resulted in record profits on Wall Street. Bear Sterns for example, blew past their forecast $3.36 per share and hit an actual number of $4.00 per share. Well record profits lead to bonuses as Goldman Sachs announced it was setting aside $16.5 billion to cover salaries and bonuses for its employees with top bonuses exceeding $20-million. Not bad for shuffling some paper and greasing some palms. Where do I sign?

Looks Like We May Have A Merry Christmas

I don’t post for two days and the markets turn around? Maybe I should be a little more quiet?

Yesterday, as expected the Fed left rates alone yesterday and the market took that as a positive. Although, I would have liked to see a nice Christmas gift of a cut, I’ll take the unchanged. Better than an increase.

Also, this morning word of merger talks between Continental Airlines and United Airlines to create the worlds largest airline has markets in a positive mood. GE also announced it was increasing it’s dividend by 12%.

Adding fuel to the Christmas rally this morning was a much stronger than expected November retail sales report. Economists consensus forecast was for a 0.2 percent gain. So it looks like we have all the makings for a nice Christmas rally. Here’s hoping that WIRE takes off so I can sell it as I’ve got my eyes on another stock, but more about that later.

Fianlly a Good Friday

This morning the Labor Department released the jobs report. They said that the US economy created 132,000 jobs in November beating the consensus forecast 105,000 jobs. This was despite the rise in the unemployment rate to 4.5%. As expected the futures jumped on the news and it looks like we may be back on track for a Christmas rally despite the price of oil rising above $63.00.

On the plus side it looks like a lot of retailers are deeply discounting ahead of Christmas so maybe it looks like it’s a good idea to wait until the last minute this year.

Both my stocks were down with the general market yesterday.

Go Christmas rally.

Waiting for Friday

Today looks like the day when the markets could be lower as the futures are all slightly down this morning. Yahoo and Chrysler both announced restructuring plans and Novell came out with disappointing numbers. Usually in this scenario, when I say the markets will be lower something happens to drive the markets higher. Right now there are no major economic reports or numbers being released until Friday’s unemployment report. Right now the only good news out there for the markets are lower oil and lower gold prices.

Looking at the stock that I’m holding, some good news on the CLRK front. CLRK announced that is has settled its suit with Super Vision. Under the agreement, Super Vision will pay CLRK a fee to settle past claims and in return get a royalty license so it can continue to sell LED products. Good news on the CLRK front . Now all we need to do is get WIRE moving. Something I did look up was the number of shares short. There is 30% of the float that is shorted. So by my logic, if WIRE can put a rally together for a few days then there will be some short covering which will drive the price up and more short covering and so on and so on. Come on WIRE we need some upward movement.

Two Days in a Row....

The market today seems poised for another rally. I think Wall Street and the rest of us want to see a nice Christmas rally. A Christmas rally will be good for everyone. It will put more money in everyone’s pockets and give my retirement account a nice boost. The futures are all pointing up this morning but things could come to an end this morning at 10:00am when the government will report on October factory orders. The rally looks to be spurred on this morning from home builder Toll Brothers who this morning said that it appeared the housing slump in the US has bottomed out.

The big day will be this Friday when the government releases the unemployment report. Economists are expecting the unemployment rate to edge up to 4.5% from 4.4%. In this case a slight increase would be good for the markets because it will mean that the economy is not growing at a frantic pace. That kind of unemployment gets Wall Street worried that there will be wage inflation. After all if people are earning more then there’s talk about wage inflation. An we know what happens when that talk starts….

Welcome to December

Ok. Today I delayed writing this entry because this morning Wall Street looked like it didn’t know where is wanted to go. Pfizer had withdrawn a heart medicine it was working on and oil was up. There were a few negative factors in the air. I wanted to get an idea of what was going to happen before I shot my mouth off. Well now I see that the Dow is up over 100 points, Nasdaq is up 40 points, and CLRK is up 0.35 (WIRE is down 0.55). So what changed?

Well one of the things Wall Street picked up on merger news. Bank of New York is merging with Mellon Bank, LSI Logic is buying Agere Systems and Station Casinos has received a $4.7 billion bid from management to take the company private. Crude prices also slid today after the National Weather Service Forecast milder temperatures over the next couple of weeks. Also December, particularly the first week, is a traditionally strong month for stocks. All this good news for the markets led to today’s rally.

At home in Canada, the Liberal party did what I considered to be a disservice to their party by electing Stephane Dion as their leader. I think that an unknown francophone may not be the best person to represent the party and could end up failing to get the Liberals back in government. But at this point only time will tell and we should give the man a chance and see what he can do.